Weather filter:
True ATE
-10.3%
Negative = advanced weather helps
Treatment rate
59%
Share with advanced features
Sample size
3,670
Holdout timestamps
Best forecaster
lightgbm
Advanced feature set
Effect by weather (click bars to filter)
Causal Forest vs ground truth — hover for values
Setup: T=1 uses GHI/DNI/cloud features; T=0 uses basic weather only. Y = forecast error (%). Semi-synthetic design with known ground truth for validation. Full methods →